Indian agriculture was transforming from a cereal-based production system toward high-value crops (HVC) during the 1990s. However, food security concerns resurfaced during the first decade of the 21st century, and the policy environment tilted in favor of cereal-based production systems, especially rice and wheat.

This paper revisits an earlier study to evaluate how the policy shift influences the patterns and the sources of agricultural growth in India and assesses their implications for regional priorities for higher, more sustainable, and more inclusive agricultural growth. The study found that technology has remained the most important source of agricultural growth due to policy emphasis on cereal-based food security.

Nevertheless, agricultural diversification toward HVCs, driven by a sustained rise in per capita income and urbanization, among other factors, emerged as the next most important source of agricultural growth. The growth in high-value agriculture has come largely from area reallocation from less profitable coarse cereals, mainly millets and sorghum. The contributions of area expansion and commodity prices to agricultural growth have been erratic and small, suggesting that these cannot be sustainable sources of agricultural growth.